Quite the currency action today. The way the dollar is trading suggests equity market risk. I've de-risked my stock portfolio. AFK (Africa) and MSOS (US cannabis) in particular did SPECTACULARLY over the last few months so I took profits as they seem likely to be among the hardest hit in an equity correction / dollar rally. Added more puts. I think now is time to chill out for a bit and look for the next entry opportunity (see my prev post about MSOS in particular). tradingview.com/x/XeZa4tOx/

The cons to this trade are that bonds are a terrible asset class right now. Hence I'm careful to view this as a relative value trade. It's a pretty small chunk of my portfolio (which is already really underweight bonds), but this is one of the better/safer fixed income trades I'm seeing at the moment (besides Eurodollar futures options, betting on a short term rate move in either direction, most likely later this year or next year).

Feel free to poke some holes :)

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Relative value trade idea for you all: HYB. It's basically JNK, but closed end fund and comes with the customary CEF discount. It currently trades a bit cheaper than the "typical" historical discount (per CEF Connect) and this tends to be stable. So you essentially get JNK with an extra dividend yield cushion of a bit over 1.5% (current ~6.8% yield).

* Solid div yield vs most "value" stocks
* Fed put lol
* Margin of safety over JNK etc.
* You can buy puts against JNK if you want for CHEAP

Look what finally came in the mail! (None of the books I want in paper form are ever in stock in-country haha)

Ian Wagner boosted

Update on my China delisting trade:

CNOOC(HK:883) will be delisted from all MSCI indices on jan 26 at the close. I expect that about 1.5-2 bln needs to get out of the stock.

CNOOC is the largest offshore exploration co in China, and has exclusive rights to work with for. firms in China.

Compounded book at a CAGR of about 9.5% in the last decade. All-in cost of about 20 $/bbl, and net cash of about $3 mln. Currently trading at 8.5% FY19 dividend.

I already own some, but will be adding more

Ian Wagner boosted

1/5 A small thread 🧡 with 4 indications that we might have seen or be close to the end of the current #Bitcoin dip

Included charts: SOPR, GBTC premium, BPT + BPT/M2 & comparison with 2017 dips πŸ‘‡

Ian Wagner boosted

Feeling funky, I just shorted for the first time since February of last year. Took my exposure down to 85% net long, will keep adding to shorts over the coming months.

In my experience, the more counter-intuitive putting on a position feels the better its result.

Ian Wagner boosted

You heard it here first, folks: the CIA is coming for the worst of the worst... the libertarians!


Ian Wagner boosted
Ian Wagner boosted

So TSLA fanboys tell you ARK only sells TSLA to keep weighting under 10%, right? WRONG. ARKK is an ACTIVELY managed fund, unlike their weighted funds like PRNT.

ARKK has been steadily disposing of TSLA in recent weeks.

Do Your Own Homework ℒ️ but I tend to like selling puts in the 40-45 DTE range to get a decent mix of accelerating theta and exit if they become substantially profitable, and repeat as many times as possible until I end up getting assigned. or it goes way out of the range I'd actually be willing to pay. No strikes currently match my profile, so I'll watch and wait for a bit but thought I'd throw the idea out here for you all.

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Trade idea: Cannabis is one of my highest conviction long-term/theme (I'm talking years, not months) trades right now. I've been long MSOS for a few months now as I think it's the best way to capture the opportunity from the tsunami of legalization in the US.

I want a bit more exposure, but it's had a huge run up recently. Enter options. Premiums for new issues tend to go through the roof b/c nobody is really sure how it trades. I'd look to sell short dated puts at a price you'd actually buy.

Ian Wagner boosted

To anyone who joined via FinPeeps.com - if you click on the "Federated" link on the right you can see posts from several other Mastodon instances.

How 'bout that implied vol πŸ˜‚ It was a good month to be to be long some BTC vol @ LedgerX, but wow those prices are getting rich.

Ian Wagner boosted

BREAKING: PARTISAN AMERICANS SUFFER FROM A MANIC DEPRESSIVE CYCLE. Turns out if you're in the middle you're actually pretty chill regardless.

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