Ok. I’m previewing my newest idea here first. Been working nonstop on due diligence since it came across my radar. Not fully done but imminent news could be major catalyst so you decide, can a) buy before PRs hoping for big pop which may not happen or b) be prepared to buy after PR that could significantly derisk the value dispersions.
Copper is at the confluence of EV/renewable bubble overinvestment, economic stimulus, a supply deficit and low inventories. You know I am
invested in OCO.V...
Portfolio update: Lots of movement since I last posted.
Large positions: Cash (incl. TOTL/TLT), OCO.V, SD, JOE, OET.OL
Smaller positions: CRESY, LODE, PBF, ILA.V, ATH.TO
Got lucky on switching from DK to PBF last week. I trimmed off a lot of positions over the past few weeks.
I have another mining company new position I am doing due diligence on and will announce when ready. VERY interesting.
I made a mistake. All-in cost is 30 $/bbl, not 20.
Update on my China delisting trade:
CNOOC(HK:883) will be delisted from all MSCI indices on jan 26 at the close. I expect that about 1.5-2 bln needs to get out of the stock.
CNOOC is the largest offshore exploration co in China, and has exclusive rights to work with for. firms in China.
Compounded book at a CAGR of about 9.5% in the last decade. All-in cost of about 20 $/bbl, and net cash of about $3 mln. Currently trading at 8.5% FY19 dividend.
I already own some, but will be adding more
Helium could be interesting opportunity in the coming years.
Reminds me a lot of the uranium market:
- fragmented market place
- essential in products with high sunk costs(MRI, Data centers, space launches)
- no substitute, and unable to be synthesized
- high supply chain risk
- mostly generated as a by-product of NG
This interview by Crux gives a good look in the industry, don't have a view on the company.
Thoughts, or rebuttals are welcome.
Ok, here's the $CRESY thread. Sum of parts + macro. Here's what we have:
1) > 1.3M acres of wholly owned SA farmland (beef, corn, soy, sugarcane
2) 62.4% stake in a truly impressive real estate portfolio - 15 malls, 4 skyscrapers, 3 luxury hotels, nearly 1000 acres of land in Buenos Aires and Montevideo, the Buenos Aires fairground, 2 convention centers, a consumer bank, a commercial bank, and an arena
3) 50% stake in Argentina's biggest ag exchange
4) 22.5% stake in ag fintech platform
Seeing a lot of posts on CRESY so wanted to share some good articles.
Nuveen, Alt. asset management, has a lot of great resources. And, you can also get a rough estimation what they value their land at by computing AUM/hectare.
Lots of info and data you can't find anywhere else. I pasted some good links below.
1. Why farmland now? https://www.nuveen.com/global/thinking/alternatives/why-farmland-now
2. Drivers of farmland value.
3. Nuveen 2020 farmland report.
I do a lot of forced selling trades, one of the most obvious ones was the delisting of chinese co's from the NYSE last week. Basically a wealth transfer from US to Chinese investors.
I sized up the trade to about 10% of the pf, as it isn't common to get good companies at such cheap prices.
Bought China mobile at about 1x EV/Ebitda and div of 8%. And, CNOOC at 2.5x EV/ebitda & div of 9%.
1 week return:
CHL - 22%
CNOOC - 16.4%
Lots of fun, and great IRRs for low-risk setups.
Private investor// 70% core long, rn mainly commodity related// 30% event-driven, lots of forced selling and some short-squeezes.
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