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Sum parts for current trading value alone, and and CRESY is undervalued by at least 30% upside.

Price in 27%, 21%, 7%, and 42% respective rises in corn, sugar, beef, and soy since Q3 report where farming segment generated more than 100M in EBITDA.

Price in normalization of the Argentine economy post pandemic and consider the extremely low leverage and high quality assets of their real estate portfolio.

Price in unicorn status for Agrofy.

What's CRESY worth? A hell of a lot more.

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So, we've got a possible future South American equivalent of the CME, a possible Amazon for farms and farm equipment, and a commercial real estate business, on their own, are trading for half of CRESY current market cap, and could have intrinsic value of billions.

The core land that CRESY possesses is worth perhaps billions as well if we believe their valuation assessments. An extremely conservative $750/hectare for the whole portfolio yields 400M.

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Then we have the 50% stake in fyo and the 22.5 stake in Agrofy. This started as an ag tech startup in 2000 and evolved into one of the most important brick and mortar ag exchanges in Latin America. They do futures, options, and brokering.

Agrofy recently raised 23M in a series B from SP Ventures. This was the largest Latin American agtech deal ever done. Agrofy has 2.6M in revenue, which has increased 50% YoY.

I think we can say with confidence these two stakes are worth at least 50M.

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It's difficult to stress enough the quality of the assets - IRSA owns 2 convention centers in expensive Latin American capital cities, a stadium, nearly 1000 acres of prime undeveloped urban real estate, 4 skyscrapers, 15 malls, and
some of the finest hotels on the continent. Many of these assets have been closed for 6 months due to the pandemic.

I think IRSA itself could be worth billions in a health Argentine economy with no pandemic raging. Things certainly can't get much worse.

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The real estate segment also owns a 30% stake in a healthy retail bank (Banco Hipotecaria), which is worth around 50M USD in the open market. It also owns a stake in a US REIT worth around 10M, and 37.7% of a commercial bank. The commercial bank is currently losing money, but has a reasonably healthy balance sheet. The consumer bank is profitable.

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The real estate segment is currently trading at just 161M USD. Just two years the capitalization was over a billion dollars. Given that most of these properties are all located in Argentina, this valuation is probably mostly due to the fact that the company has been an absolute basket case. While Fitch views the bonds at distressed levels, IRSA has nonetheless reduced its exposure and leverage is incredibly low. 0 chance of bankruptcy.

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The farming segment itself is currently profitable, and with the current outlook for cattle, corn, soy, and sugarcane, earnings should continue to improve. Despite more than doubling since the March lows, CRESY is seriously lagging its fundamentals. The earnings for this company are set to explode as they realize skyrocketing agricultural prices.

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Ok, here's the $CRESY thread. Sum of parts + macro. Here's what we have:

1) > 1.3M acres of wholly owned SA farmland (beef, corn, soy, sugarcane

2) 62.4% stake in a truly impressive real estate portfolio - 15 malls, 4 skyscrapers, 3 luxury hotels, nearly 1000 acres of land in Buenos Aires and Montevideo, the Buenos Aires fairground, 2 convention centers, a consumer bank, a commercial bank, and an arena

3) 50% stake in Argentina's biggest ag exchange

4) 22.5% stake in ag fintech platform

Seeing a lot of posts on CRESY so wanted to share some good articles.

Nuveen, Alt. asset management, has a lot of great resources. And, you can also get a rough estimation what they value their land at by computing AUM/hectare.

Lots of info and data you can't find anywhere else. I pasted some good links below.

1. Why farmland now?

2. Drivers of farmland value.

3. Nuveen 2020 farmland report.


Poloniex lending market is definitely pricing in significant risk associated with Tether 26% lending rate vs 11% with USDC

Does anyone have a systematic refutation of the points presented in this article on Tether?

Not a good look here.


BREAKING: PARTISAN AMERICANS SUFFER FROM A MANIC DEPRESSIVE CYCLE. Turns out if you're in the middle you're actually pretty chill regardless.

journalists: *worried about the unlimited power of surveillance capitalists*

also journalists: *don't ever do stories about all the alternatives that are out there*

AMC is definitely just a dead cat bounce. But #3 most shorted stock. Can it survive long enough for a GameStop moment?

This article is a great exploration of the evidence and data around raising the minimum wage to $15/hr.

TLDR: It's going to lead to more unemployment, slower growth, and higher costs for both businesses and consumers. This is what the data says.

Keeping an eye on ATKR. Not as cheap as it was a few months ago (it's doubled), but this is a goooooooddddd fucking business. Will benefit greatly from electrification /infrastructure trend and not that expensive on earnings basis (10-15X TTM earnings) with average 15% annual CAGR

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